ETF Weekly: Where Did the "Bottom-Fishing" Capital Go?

 

Firstly, let's reiterate several points from the past two weeks: There is no bull market below 2 trillion, only games of strategy; ordinary investors, either invest long-term through regular investments, or if technically skilled, follow hot spots and emotional tides closely, there is no in-between state.

 

The challenge without a bull market is a low margin of error, with various funds playing and watching at the same time.

So, if you are still here or planning to enter, please identify yourself: Where do your emotional points stand? Are you looking for long-term or short-term investments, do your capabilities and energy match, you must self-定位. Blind operations, especially topping up, have a high probability of losing money.

Alright, let's analyze the market next.

 

The dive around noon last Friday was the result of the short-term market liquidity and the difficulty in continuing the relay of popularity.

Without a consensus on a bull market, it is difficult to attract funds from outside the market. After a whole struggle, it will be the same as some familiar bear market blue-chip stocks collapsing and making up for the fall.

 

As we pointed out in our morning report last Friday, the semiconductor did not rise when encountering good news, which is a big bearish signal. Coupled with the market dive caused by pulling up securities in the afternoon on Thursday, it further indicates that the market is receding and the risk is increasing.

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But what surprised us here is that even the bank's risk aversion has disappeared. Therefore, the greater possibility is that the main force wants to overthrow the current pattern and attract incremental funds from outside the market through a strong retraction.

 

So, did the indiscriminate big drop on Friday attract incremental funds? There were indeed some.

Looking at the transactions of broad-based indices, the increases in the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are more obvious, while the CSI 1000 and 2000 are relatively less. On the surface, the "bottom-fishing" funds are mainly increasing their positions in blue-chip and first and second-tier white-horse stocks, and these funds are mostly institutional in nature.

Moreover, the fact that the decline gap is not significant indicates that the market has not yet seen a real panic selling, which reduces the difficulty of rebounding. The most feared is the official start of the risk-aversion theme, which is a bear market signal.

 

From the effective transactions of ETFs calculated by the turnover of leading stocks, themes such as consumption, finance, pharmaceuticals, and energy have indeed seen a more significant increase in volume.

 

On the other hand, themes such as new energy vehicles, technology, and robots (mother machines) have not seen a significant increase, and have even shrunk. A significant factor is that their original volume was strong and the base was large.

However, from the above fund differentiation, it is indeed possible for institutions to use these low-priced chips to make a small wave.

But as I said: Are you willing to participate in this kind of game?

 

Looking at the performance of the themes for the week, military, culture and media, consumption, and technology were relatively weak, while commodities led the rise driven by the strength of gold, and domestic equity themes were all defeated.

 

Looking at the redemption data for the week, a few big guys like the CSI 300 ETF, CSI 1000, and 500 have left more than 20 billion, and the total of the CSI A500 is still not enough.

Every day, a group of institutions say that "incremental funds for CSI A500 are coming to the rescue," which is really ridiculous. First, the amount is negligible, and second, a lot of it is sold from the CSI 300 and reallocated, so there is no real increase.

 

From a style perspective, the impact of a big drop on the overall style is still controllable, it was not strong to begin with, and it still seems to be part of the oscillation.

 

The overall liquidity of the market is still in a downward phase, and the downward momentum of sentiment is very large.

What is the essence of a bull market? It is the liquidity premium, the equity asset price bubble supported by mindless buying. On the contrary, it is a bear market.

 

We reiterate once again that in the stage of stock game, it is very difficult for most ordinary investors. For example, any good news may lead to a high opening, a drop, and a dive.

 

Without a bull market, if you don't invest long-term, entering the market means participating in speculative games. After scolding countless times, and then the big main force manipulates a long positive next week, you will probably not be able to help it, and you will return in a grand manner.

So be realistic, determine your investment style according to your ability, and amplify your preferences in the cycle of emotional rebound, don't go against the current.

You can use our opening logic to identify yourself, what kind of investment style you are, position yourself, and don't joke with money.

 

A brief summary of the weekend's news is as above, just take a look.

In terms of technology, the urgency of domestic substitution has increased, which is considered an emotional benefit. And the negotiations between China and Europe on electric vehicle tariffs seem to have made positive progress.

For good news, what should be expected is a quantitative change to a qualitative change, driving the tide of emotions to return.

We repeatedly warned last week, never chase the good news. As I said: it is very difficult in the recession period, be cautious, if you don't have the ability, don't try to make all the money.

 

From a long-term perspective, a bull market is necessary to boost consumer confidence and support the real economy. Regulators and major forces will inevitably promote a counterattack.

From a medium to long-term perspective, Hong Kong stocks with good performance and increasing policy support, emerging industries: robots, low-altitude economy, solid-state batteries, intelligent driving, etc., the investment logic is becoming more and more solid.

And the hard-core technologies that support them include advanced equipment manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, etc., and the small and medium-sized broad-based CSI 500, 1000 also have a larger long-term pattern, short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term logic, regular investment, pyramid or grid layout rhythm remains unchanged.

In the short term, if you are not a master, participate less in the game, the experience is not good, it is not worth affecting work and study.

Next week, we will still observe the rebound of emotions, when the certainty is low, just control your hands.